IGO’s 4QFY24 result was strong, driven by a material beat in spodumene sales at Greenbushes. The strong sales performance and in line cash costs more than offset a mixed performance at Nova, which reported a beat in production but lower sales. Group Ebitda and cash flow was materially better than we had expected, driven by the strong sales result at Greenbushes. Guidance for FY25 was in line with our estimates for Greenbushes, but weaker for Nova. Capex guidance for Greenbushes was also materially higher as waste movements and completion of CGP3 is likely to cost more than originally anticipated. The weaker output for Nova drives 37% and 16% cuts to our FY25 and FY26 earnings, and combined with the higher capex has more than offset the strong 4QFY24 cash generation, with our price target falling 4% to A$7.40. IGO is one of a few producers globally that generates cash flow at spot lithium prices, and we reiterate our BUY rating.
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