Latest Research

Ausdrill (ASL) - Delivering

Ausdrill Limited LogoASL’s 1H18 results were solid, with earnings ahead of expectations and a robust balance sheet enabling targeting an exceptional pipeline in Africa. Normalised EBITDA was $82m (we were thinking $78.5m), gearing dropped below 20%, and the Company has cash and available facilities in excess of $400m. Based on 1H18 numbers and commentary, we up our FY18 normalised NPAT forecast to $51.5m (prior $43.9m) and increase our longer term numbers. Our blended valuation climbs to $2.75 (prior $2.28). The current share price reflects a strong business with excellent prospects and we maintain a hold call.

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Pacific Energy (PEA) - Looking For A Spark

Pacific Energy LogoPEA’s 1H18 EBITDA of $21m on $30m revenue was in-line with guidance and forecasts. The Company has reaffirmed full year guidance for $43-44m EBITDA with recently installed capacity coming on-line in the 2H. Recently, concern has centred on PEA’s long-term growth potential after losing out on a spate of newly awarded contracts and slow progress in Africa. However, we believe the current EV of circa $240m, trading on a 5.3x FY19 EBITDA multiple, to be undemanding for a business with the consistency that PEA offers. Therefore, we upgrade to a BUY, on a revised $0.70 valuation (prior $0.67).

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Paragon Care (PGC) - Ceasing Coverage

Paragon Care logoFollowing a research review, we are ceasing coverage of PGC to focus on WA-based industrials. PGC currently has a $70m capital raising underway to help fund a number of acquisitions and continue its consolidation strategy. The new businesses are expected to be accretive to earnings and we believe the risks associated with the integration of these large acquisitions are mitigated to a degree by successful strategy execution to date. We cease coverage with a buy call and a $1.20 valuation.

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Explaurum Ltd (EXU) - Gravitating Towards Production

Explaurum Ltd LogoExplaurum (EXU) is an ASX listed, gold exploration business with a large and highly prospective 330km2 ground position. EXU’s flagship Tampia Gold Project is located 240km east of Perth near the town of Narambeen in Western Australia’s Wheatbelt and 100km south of Ramelius Resources (RMS) Edna May mine. The Company owns a 90% interest in two mining leases and a surrounding exploration licence through a joint venture, and 100% interest in a further seven exploration licences that complement the original tenure. In November 2017, EXU released a Scoping Study demonstrating gold production of 94kozpa over the first five years, capex of A$95m and all-in sustaining costs of A$888/oz. Next steps involve the completion of a Feasibility Study in the March Q and drill testing of the high priority gravity anomalies to the south, west and north of Tampia. We initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and target price of $0.21ps.

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Argonaut Industrials - Contracting - The Drought Is Over

Argonaut Limited LogoWe have captured considerable detail on all contracts awarded to ASX-listed contractors since July 2010. Data on client, project, location, service, sector, stage and commodity can be sliced and diced to provide a visual indication of themes and trends. We discuss some of the general and company specific observations in this note.

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